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Melilla vs Mérida AD — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Melilla
Melilla
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mérida AD
Mérida AD
2/7/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 13Estadio Álvarez Claro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Melilla43%
×Draw30%
Mérida AD26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melilla
1.16
Mérida AD
0.83

Melilla creates 40% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Melilla
1.15
Mérida AD
0.75

allows per match

Melilla
0.92
Mérida AD
1.17

finishing

Melilla+0.00on par
Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melilla ↓

Mérida AD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Melilla or draw
74%
Melilla or Mérida AD
70%
Draw or Mérida AD
57%

Winning margin

Melilla wins by 2+
19%
Mérida AD wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Melilla 1+ goals
69%
Melilla 2+ goals
32%
Melilla 3+ goals
11%
Mérida AD 1+ goals
56%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
20%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Melilla (draw refunded)
62%
Mérida AD (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melilla at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melilla attack 1.15 + Mérida AD defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.16

Mérida AD attack 0.75 + Melilla defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Melilla scores more
43%
level
30%
Mérida AD scores more
26%

Melilla at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Melilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 5: Melilla 2–0 Mérida AD

Melilla beat Mérida AD 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Álvarez Claro in Melilla.