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Melilla vs Las Rozas — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Melilla
Melilla
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Las Rozas
Las Rozas
4/25/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2nd Phase - 4Estadio Álvarez Claro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Melilla48%
×Draw31%
Las Rozas21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melilla
1.19
Las Rozas
0.69

Melilla creates 72% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Melilla
1.15
Las Rozas
0.46

allows per match

Melilla
0.92
Las Rozas
1.23

finishing

Melilla+0.00on par
Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melilla ↓

Las Rozas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Melilla or draw
79%
Melilla or Las Rozas
69%
Draw or Las Rozas
52%

Winning margin

Melilla wins by 2+
21%
Las Rozas wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Melilla 1+ goals
70%
Melilla 2+ goals
33%
Melilla 3+ goals
12%
Las Rozas 1+ goals
50%
Las Rozas 2+ goals
15%
Las Rozas 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Melilla (draw refunded)
69%
Las Rozas (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melilla at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melilla attack 1.15 + Las Rozas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Las Rozas attack 0.46 + Melilla defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Melilla scores more
48%
level
31%
Las Rozas scores more
21%

Melilla at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Melilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Melilla vs Las Rozas

Melilla and Las Rozas drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Álvarez Claro in Melilla.