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Melilla vs Las Palmas II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Melilla
Melilla
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
10/13/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Estadio Álvarez Claro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Melilla57%
×Draw28%
Las Palmas II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melilla
1.36
Las Palmas II
0.55

Melilla creates 147% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Melilla
0.93
Las Palmas II
0.40

allows per match

Melilla
0.71
Las Palmas II
1.80

finishing

Melilla+0.00on par
Las Palmas II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melilla ↓

Las Palmas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Melilla or draw
85%
Melilla or Las Palmas II
72%
Draw or Las Palmas II
43%

Winning margin

Melilla wins by 2+
28%
Las Palmas II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Melilla 1+ goals
74%
Melilla 2+ goals
39%
Melilla 3+ goals
16%
Las Palmas II 1+ goals
42%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
11%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Melilla (draw refunded)
79%
Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melilla at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Las Palmas II away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melilla attack 0.93 + Las Palmas II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.36

Las Palmas II attack 0.40 + Melilla defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Melilla scores more
57%
level
28%
Las Palmas II scores more
15%

Melilla at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Melilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Melilla 0–1 Las Palmas II

Las Palmas II beat Melilla 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Álvarez Claro in Melilla.