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Melilla vs Don Benito — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Melilla
Melilla
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Don Benito
Don Benito
3/7/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 16Estadio Álvarez Claro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Melilla51%
×Draw29%
Don Benito20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melilla
1.28
Don Benito
0.67

Melilla creates 91% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Melilla
1.15
Don Benito
0.42

allows per match

Melilla
0.92
Don Benito
1.42

finishing

Melilla+0.00on par
Don Benito+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melilla ↓

Don Benito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Melilla or draw
80%
Melilla or Don Benito
71%
Draw or Don Benito
49%

Winning margin

Melilla wins by 2+
24%
Don Benito wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Melilla 1+ goals
72%
Melilla 2+ goals
37%
Melilla 3+ goals
14%
Don Benito 1+ goals
49%
Don Benito 2+ goals
15%
Don Benito 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Melilla (draw refunded)
72%
Don Benito (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melilla at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Don Benito away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melilla attack 1.15 + Don Benito defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.28

Don Benito attack 0.42 + Melilla defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Melilla scores more
51%
level
29%
Don Benito scores more
20%

Melilla at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Melilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Melilla vs Don Benito

Melilla and Don Benito drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Álvarez Claro in Melilla.