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Melilla vs Celta de Vigo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Melilla
Melilla
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Celta de Vigo II
Celta de Vigo II
1/19/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Estadio Álvarez Claro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Melilla37%
×Draw30%
Celta de Vigo II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melilla
1.11
Celta de Vigo II
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 120 away

creates per match

Melilla
0.93
Celta de Vigo II
1.33

allows per match

Melilla
0.71
Celta de Vigo II
1.29

finishing

Melilla+0.00on par
Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melilla ↓

Celta de Vigo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Melilla or draw
67%
Melilla or Celta de Vigo II
70%
Draw or Celta de Vigo II
63%

Winning margin

Melilla wins by 2+
15%
Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Melilla 1+ goals
67%
Melilla 2+ goals
30%
Melilla 3+ goals
10%
Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals
64%
Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals
27%
Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Melilla (draw refunded)
53%
Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melilla at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melilla attack 0.93 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Melilla defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Melilla scores more
37%
level
30%
Celta de Vigo II scores more
33%

Melilla at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Melilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Melilla 1–0 Celta de Vigo II

Melilla beat Celta de Vigo II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Álvarez Claro in Melilla.