Melilla CD 0–3 Linares Deportivo: Result & Stats

Melilla CD

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Linares Deportivo

8/31/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 2Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Melilla CD18%

×Draw24%

Linares Deportivo58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Melilla CDExpected goals in this matchLinares Deportivo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

1.65

Melilla CD

0.79

Linares Deportivo

1.65

Linares Deportivo creates 109% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 14 away

0.79

creates per match

2.07

1.24

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Melilla CD

0.79

Linares Deportivo

2.07

allows per match

Melilla CD

1.24

Linares Deportivo

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Melilla CD+0.00on par

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melilla CD ↓

Linares Deportivo →

0–09%

0–114%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Melilla CD or draw

42%

Melilla CD or Linares Deportivo

76%

Draw or Linares Deportivo

82%

Winning margin

Melilla CD wins by 2+

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Melilla CD 1+ goals

55%

Melilla CD 2+ goals

19%

Melilla CD 3+ goals

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals

81%

Linares Deportivo 2+ goals

49%

Linares Deportivo 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Melilla CD (draw refunded)

24%

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Melilla CD at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Melilla CD attack 0.79 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.79

Linares Deportivo attack 2.07 + Melilla CD defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Melilla CD scores more

18%

level

24%

Linares Deportivo scores more

58%

Linares Deportivo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Melilla CD 0–3 Linares Deportivo

Linares Deportivo beat Melilla CD 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio La Espiguera in Melilla.

Melilla CD vs Linares Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Melilla CD 0–3 Linares Deportivo