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Melilla CD vs Huétor Vega — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Melilla CD
Melilla CD
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Huétor Vega
Huétor Vega
9/22/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 5Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Melilla CD34%
×Draw29%
Huétor Vega37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melilla CD
1.08
Huétor Vega
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 109 away

creates per match

Melilla CD
0.79
Huétor Vega
1.04

allows per match

Melilla CD
1.24
Huétor Vega
1.38

finishing

Melilla CD+0.00on par
Huétor Vega+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melilla CD ↓

Huétor Vega →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Melilla CD or draw
63%
Melilla CD or Huétor Vega
71%
Draw or Huétor Vega
66%

Winning margin

Melilla CD wins by 2+
13%
Huétor Vega wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Melilla CD 1+ goals
66%
Melilla CD 2+ goals
29%
Melilla CD 3+ goals
10%
Huétor Vega 1+ goals
68%
Huétor Vega 2+ goals
32%
Huétor Vega 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Melilla CD (draw refunded)
48%
Huétor Vega (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melilla CD at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

Huétor Vega away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.38 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melilla CD attack 0.79 + Huétor Vega defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.08

Huétor Vega attack 1.04 + Melilla CD defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Melilla CD scores more
34%
level
29%
Huétor Vega scores more
37%

Huétor Vega at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Huétor Vega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Melilla CD 1 – 0 Huétor Vega

Melilla CD beat Huétor Vega 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio La Espiguera in Melilla.