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Melilla CD vs El Palo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Melilla CD
Melilla CD
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
El Palo
El Palo
2/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 25Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Melilla CD36%
×Draw30%
El Palo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melilla CD
1.08
El Palo
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 91 away

creates per match

Melilla CD
0.79
El Palo
0.87

allows per match

Melilla CD
1.24
El Palo
1.38

finishing

Melilla CD+0.00on par
El Palo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melilla CD ↓

El Palo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Melilla CD or draw
66%
Melilla CD or El Palo
70%
Draw or El Palo
64%

Winning margin

Melilla CD wins by 2+
14%
El Palo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Melilla CD 1+ goals
66%
Melilla CD 2+ goals
29%
Melilla CD 3+ goals
10%
El Palo 1+ goals
65%
El Palo 2+ goals
28%
El Palo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Melilla CD (draw refunded)
51%
El Palo (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melilla CD at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

El Palo away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.38 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melilla CD attack 0.79 + El Palo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.08

El Palo attack 0.87 + Melilla CD defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Melilla CD scores more
36%
level
30%
El Palo scores more
34%

Melilla CD at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Melilla CD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Melilla CD 0 – 2 El Palo

El Palo beat Melilla CD 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio La Espiguera in Melilla.