Melilla CD vs Alhaurín: Preview & Prediction

Melilla CD

CANC

00:00

Alhaurín

3/22/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 31Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Melilla CD46%

×Draw26%

Alhaurín28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Melilla CDExpected goals in this matchAlhaurín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.11

Melilla CD

1.50

Alhaurín

1.11

Melilla CD creates 35% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 43 away

0.79

creates per match

0.98

1.24

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Melilla CD

0.79

Alhaurín

0.98

allows per match

Melilla CD

1.24

Alhaurín

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Melilla CD+0.00on par

Alhaurín+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melilla CD ↓

Alhaurín →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Melilla CD or draw

72%

Melilla CD or Alhaurín

74%

Draw or Alhaurín

54%

Winning margin

Melilla CD wins by 2+

23%

Alhaurín wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Melilla CD 1+ goals

78%

Melilla CD 2+ goals

44%

Melilla CD 3+ goals

19%

Alhaurín 1+ goals

67%

Alhaurín 2+ goals

30%

Alhaurín 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Melilla CD (draw refunded)

62%

Alhaurín (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Melilla CD at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

Alhaurín away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.21 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Melilla CD attack 0.79 + Alhaurín defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.50

Alhaurín attack 0.98 + Melilla CD defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Melilla CD scores more

46%

level

26%

Alhaurín scores more

28%

Melilla CD at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Melilla CD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Melilla CD vs Alhaurín — Match Preview

Melilla CD face Alhaurín on March 22, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Melilla CD host Alhaurín at Estadio La Espiguera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Melilla CD vs Alhaurín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Melilla CD vs Alhaurín — Match Preview