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Melhus vs Tynset — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Melhus
Melhus
CANC
14:00
Tynset
Tynset
10/17/20203. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 11ÆESTOLT Banen Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Melhus66%
×Draw15%
Tynset18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melhus
3.38
Tynset
1.81

Melhus creates 87% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 6 away

creates per match

Melhus
1.25
Tynset
1.33

allows per match

Melhus
2.30
Tynset
5.50

finishing

Melhus+0.00on par
Tynset+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melhus ↓

Tynset →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Melhus or draw
82%
Melhus or Tynset
85%
Draw or Tynset
34%

Winning margin

Melhus wins by 2+
47%
Tynset wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Melhus 1+ goals
96%
Melhus 2+ goals
84%
Melhus 3+ goals
64%
Tynset 1+ goals
84%
Tynset 2+ goals
54%
Tynset 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Melhus (draw refunded)
78%
Tynset (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melhus at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.30 · 20 matches

Tynset away — creates 1.33, concedes 5.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melhus attack 1.25 + Tynset defence 5.50 → ÷2 → 3.38

Tynset attack 1.33 + Melhus defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Melhus scores more
66%
level
15%
Tynset scores more
18%

Melhus at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Melhus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Melhus host Tynset

October 17, 2020: Melhus take on Tynset in 3. Division - Girone 5. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Melhus host Tynset at ÆESTOLT Banen Kunstgress.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.