Melhus 7–0 Kristiansund II: Result & Stats

Melhus

FT

7 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kristiansund II

4/21/2025

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 3ÆESTOLT Banen Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Melhus71%

×Draw16%

Kristiansund II13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MelhusExpected goals in this matchKristiansund II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.65

1.03

Melhus

2.65

Kristiansund II

1.03

Melhus creates 157% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

2.83

creates per match

1.00

1.06

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Melhus

2.83

Kristiansund II

1.00

allows per match

Melhus

1.06

Kristiansund II

2.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Melhus+0.00on par

Kristiansund II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melhus ↓

Kristiansund II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Melhus or draw

87%

Melhus or Kristiansund II

84%

Draw or Kristiansund II

29%

Winning margin

Melhus wins by 2+

50%

Kristiansund II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Melhus 1+ goals

93%

Melhus 2+ goals

74%

Melhus 3+ goals

48%

Kristiansund II 1+ goals

64%

Kristiansund II 2+ goals

28%

Kristiansund II 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Melhus (draw refunded)

85%

Kristiansund II (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melhus at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Kristiansund II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melhus attack 2.83 + Kristiansund II defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.65

Kristiansund II attack 1.00 + Melhus defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Melhus scores more

71%

level

16%

Kristiansund II scores more

13%

Melhus at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Melhus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff