Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Melhus vs Bodø / Glimt II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Melhus
Melhus
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Bodø / Glimt II
Bodø / Glimt II
9/11/20223. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 20ÆESTOLT Banen Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Melhus45%
×Draw21%
Bodø / Glimt II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melhus
2.06
Bodø / Glimt II
1.78

Melhus creates 16% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 26 away

creates per match

Melhus
1.25
Bodø / Glimt II
1.27

allows per match

Melhus
2.30
Bodø / Glimt II
2.88

finishing

Melhus+0.00on par
Bodø / Glimt II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melhus ↓

Bodø / Glimt II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Melhus or draw
66%
Melhus or Bodø / Glimt II
79%
Draw or Bodø / Glimt II
55%

Winning margin

Melhus wins by 2+
25%
Bodø / Glimt II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Melhus 1+ goals
87%
Melhus 2+ goals
61%
Melhus 3+ goals
34%
Bodø / Glimt II 1+ goals
83%
Bodø / Glimt II 2+ goals
53%
Bodø / Glimt II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Melhus (draw refunded)
57%
Bodø / Glimt II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melhus at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.30 · 20 matches

Bodø / Glimt II away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melhus attack 1.25 + Bodø / Glimt II defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.06

Bodø / Glimt II attack 1.27 + Melhus defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Melhus scores more
45%
level
21%
Bodø / Glimt II scores more
34%

Melhus at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Melhus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Melhus vs Bodø / Glimt II

Bodø / Glimt II beat Melhus 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at ÆESTOLT Banen Kunstgress in Melhus.