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Melhus vs Aalesund II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Melhus
Melhus
Preview
16:00
Aalesund II
Aalesund II
10/12/20263. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Round 23
63%
Melhus
model favours
63%19%18%

Melhus have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Melhus63%
×Draw19%
Aalesund II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melhus
2.40
Aalesund II
1.23

Melhus creates 95% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 33 away

creates per match

Melhus
2.83
Aalesund II
1.39

allows per match

Melhus
1.06
Aalesund II
1.97

finishing

Melhus+0.00on par
Aalesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melhus ↓

Aalesund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Melhus or draw
82%
Melhus or Aalesund II
81%
Draw or Aalesund II
37%

Winning margin

Melhus wins by 2+
41%
Aalesund II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Melhus 1+ goals
91%
Melhus 2+ goals
69%
Melhus 3+ goals
42%
Aalesund II 1+ goals
71%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
35%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Melhus (draw refunded)
77%
Aalesund II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melhus at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Aalesund II away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.97 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melhus attack 2.83 + Aalesund II defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.40

Aalesund II attack 1.39 + Melhus defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Melhus scores more
63%
level
19%
Aalesund II scores more
18%

Melhus at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Melhus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Aalesund II win just 35% against the top half (vs 71% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 4.8 goals
  • Melhus sit 1, Aalesund II 14 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Melhus
LDLWW
II
LLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Melhus face Aalesund II (3. Division - Girone 2)

3. Division - Girone 2 returns with Melhus hosting Aalesund II. Match starts October 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.