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Aalesund II vs Melhus — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Aalesund II
Aalesund II
FT
3 – 2
Melhus
Melhus
10/23/20213. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 12Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Aalesund II51%
×Draw22%
Melhus27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalesund II
2.00
Melhus
1.42

Aalesund II creates 41% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Aalesund II
1.63
Melhus
0.89

allows per match

Aalesund II
1.95
Melhus
2.37

finishing

Aalesund II+0.00on par
Melhus+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund II ↓

Melhus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Aalesund II or draw
73%
Aalesund II or Melhus
78%
Draw or Melhus
49%

Winning margin

Aalesund II wins by 2+
29%
Melhus wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Aalesund II 1+ goals
86%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
59%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
32%
Melhus 1+ goals
76%
Melhus 2+ goals
41%
Melhus 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Aalesund II (draw refunded)
65%
Melhus (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Melhus away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund II attack 1.63 + Melhus defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.00

Melhus attack 0.89 + Aalesund II defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Aalesund II scores more
51%
level
22%
Melhus scores more
27%

Aalesund II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Aalesund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aalesund II vs Melhus

Aalesund II beat Melhus 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Color Line Stadion in Ålesund.