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Melbourne Victory vs SHANGHAI SIPG — AFC Champions League 2018

Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Victory
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
4/18/2018AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 6AAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Melbourne Victory48%
×Draw24%
SHANGHAI SIPG28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne Victory
1.69
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.23

Melbourne Victory creates 37% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 21 away

creates per match

Melbourne Victory
1.70
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.05

allows per match

Melbourne Victory
1.40
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.67

finishing

Melbourne Victory+0.00on par
SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Victory ↓

SHANGHAI SIPG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Melbourne Victory or draw
72%
Melbourne Victory or SHANGHAI SIPG
76%
Draw or SHANGHAI SIPG
52%

Winning margin

Melbourne Victory wins by 2+
26%
SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Melbourne Victory 1+ goals
82%
Melbourne Victory 2+ goals
50%
Melbourne Victory 3+ goals
24%
SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
71%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
35%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)
63%
SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Victory at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

SHANGHAI SIPG away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Victory attack 1.70 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.05 + Melbourne Victory defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Melbourne Victory scores more
48%
level
24%
SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
28%

Melbourne Victory at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Melbourne Victory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Melbourne Victory 2–1 SHANGHAI SIPG

Melbourne Victory beat SHANGHAI SIPG 2-1 in AFC Champions League on April 18, 2018.

The match was played at AAMI Park in Melbourne.