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Melbourne Victory II vs Green Gully — Victoria NPL 2026

Melbourne Victory II
Melbourne Victory II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Green Gully
Green Gully
T. Minutoli 75'
K. Hallam 76', 37'
3/29/2025Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 8John McEwen Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Melbourne Victory II30%
×Draw23%
Green Gully48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne Victory II
1.42
Green Gully
1.85

Green Gully creates 30% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 87 away

creates per match

Melbourne Victory II
1.31
Green Gully
1.32

allows per match

Melbourne Victory II
2.38
Green Gully
1.52

finishing

Melbourne Victory II+0.00on par
Green Gully+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Victory II ↓

Green Gully →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Melbourne Victory II or draw
52%
Melbourne Victory II or Green Gully
77%
Draw or Green Gully
70%

Winning margin

Melbourne Victory II wins by 2+
13%
Green Gully wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Melbourne Victory II 1+ goals
76%
Melbourne Victory II 2+ goals
41%
Melbourne Victory II 3+ goals
17%
Green Gully 1+ goals
84%
Green Gully 2+ goals
55%
Green Gully 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Victory II (draw refunded)
38%
Green Gully (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Victory II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

Green Gully away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Victory II attack 1.31 + Green Gully defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.42

Green Gully attack 1.32 + Melbourne Victory II defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Melbourne Victory II scores more
30%
level
23%
Green Gully scores more
48%

Green Gully at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Green Gully will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
K. Hallam
75'
T. Minutoli
76'
K. Hallam
82'
T. Minutoli

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Melbourne Victory II vs Green Gully

Green Gully beat Melbourne Victory II 2-1 in Victoria NPL on March 29, 2025.

Goals: K. Hallam (37', 76'), T. Minutoli (75').

The match was played at John McEwen Reserve in Shepparton.