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Melbourne Victory II vs Dandenong City — Victoria NPL 2026

Melbourne Victory II
Melbourne Victory II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Dandenong City
Dandenong City
K. Athiu 47'
J. Latham 45+1'
T. Atherinos 41'
8/23/2025Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 26Home of the Matildas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Melbourne Victory II31%
×Draw23%
Dandenong City47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne Victory II
1.48
Dandenong City
1.86

Dandenong City creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 76 away

creates per match

Melbourne Victory II
1.31
Dandenong City
1.34

allows per match

Melbourne Victory II
2.38
Dandenong City
1.64

finishing

Melbourne Victory II+0.00on par
Dandenong City+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Victory II ↓

Dandenong City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Melbourne Victory II or draw
53%
Melbourne Victory II or Dandenong City
77%
Draw or Dandenong City
69%

Winning margin

Melbourne Victory II wins by 2+
14%
Dandenong City wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Melbourne Victory II 1+ goals
77%
Melbourne Victory II 2+ goals
43%
Melbourne Victory II 3+ goals
19%
Dandenong City 1+ goals
84%
Dandenong City 2+ goals
55%
Dandenong City 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Victory II (draw refunded)
40%
Dandenong City (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Victory II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

Dandenong City away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.64 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Victory II attack 1.31 + Dandenong City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Dandenong City attack 1.34 + Melbourne Victory II defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Melbourne Victory II scores more
31%
level
23%
Dandenong City scores more
47%

Dandenong City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dandenong City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
T. Atherinos
45+1'
J. Latham
47'
K. Athiu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Melbourne Victory II 0 – 3 Dandenong City

Dandenong City beat Melbourne Victory II 3-0 in Victoria NPL on August 23, 2025.

Goals: T. Atherinos (41'), J. Latham (45+1'), K. Athiu (47').

The match was played at Home of the Matildas in Melbourne (Bundoora).