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Melbourne Srbija vs Manningham United Blues — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Melbourne Srbija
Melbourne Srbija
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Manningham United Blues
Manningham United Blues
Unknown 26' (pen)
7/11/2026Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Melbourne Srbija47%
×Draw22%
Manningham United Blues30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne Srbija
1.90
Manningham United Blues
1.48

Melbourne Srbija creates 28% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 55 away

creates per match

Melbourne Srbija
1.74
Manningham United Blues
1.71

allows per match

Melbourne Srbija
1.26
Manningham United Blues
2.07

finishing

Melbourne Srbija+0.00on par
Manningham United Blues+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Srbija ↓

Manningham United Blues →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Melbourne Srbija or draw
70%
Melbourne Srbija or Manningham United Blues
78%
Draw or Manningham United Blues
53%

Winning margin

Melbourne Srbija wins by 2+
26%
Manningham United Blues wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Melbourne Srbija 1+ goals
85%
Melbourne Srbija 2+ goals
56%
Melbourne Srbija 3+ goals
29%
Manningham United Blues 1+ goals
77%
Manningham United Blues 2+ goals
43%
Manningham United Blues 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Srbija (draw refunded)
61%
Manningham United Blues (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Srbija at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

Manningham United Blues away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.07 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Srbija attack 1.74 + Manningham United Blues defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.90

Manningham United Blues attack 1.71 + Melbourne Srbija defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Melbourne Srbija scores more
47%
level
22%
Manningham United Blues scores more
30%

Melbourne Srbija at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Melbourne Srbija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
Penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Melbourne Srbija 0–1 Manningham United Blues

Manningham United Blues beat Melbourne Srbija 1-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on July 11, 2026.

Goals: ? (26' pen).