Melbourne Srbija 1–0 Brunswick Juventus FC

Melbourne Srbija

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Brunswick Juventus FC

Unknown 49'

5/2/2026

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Melbourne Srbija42%

×Draw24%

Brunswick Juventus FC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Melbourne SrbijaExpected goals in this matchBrunswick Juventus FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.38

Melbourne Srbija

1.57

Brunswick Juventus FC

1.38

Melbourne Srbija creates 14% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 10 away

1.74

creates per match

1.50

1.26

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Melbourne Srbija

1.74

Brunswick Juventus FC

1.50

allows per match

Melbourne Srbija

1.26

Brunswick Juventus FC

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Melbourne Srbija+0.00on par

Brunswick Juventus FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Srbija ↓

Brunswick Juventus FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Melbourne Srbija or draw

66%

Melbourne Srbija or Brunswick Juventus FC

76%

Draw or Brunswick Juventus FC

58%

Winning margin

Melbourne Srbija wins by 2+

21%

Brunswick Juventus FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Melbourne Srbija 1+ goals

79%

Melbourne Srbija 2+ goals

46%

Melbourne Srbija 3+ goals

21%

Brunswick Juventus FC 1+ goals

75%

Brunswick Juventus FC 2+ goals

40%

Brunswick Juventus FC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Srbija (draw refunded)

56%

Brunswick Juventus FC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Srbija at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

Brunswick Juventus FC away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Srbija attack 1.74 + Brunswick Juventus FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.57

Brunswick Juventus FC attack 1.50 + Melbourne Srbija defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Melbourne Srbija scores more

42%

level

24%

Brunswick Juventus FC scores more

34%

Melbourne Srbija at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Melbourne Srbija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff