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Melbourne Knights vs Port Melbourne — Victoria NPL 2026

Melbourne Knights
Melbourne Knights
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Port Melbourne
Port Melbourne
3/9/2025Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 5Tompsett Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Melbourne Knights43%
×Draw23%
Port Melbourne34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne Knights
1.71
Port Melbourne
1.50

Melbourne Knights creates 14% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 76 away

creates per match

Melbourne Knights
1.62
Port Melbourne
1.50

allows per match

Melbourne Knights
1.51
Port Melbourne
1.79

finishing

Melbourne Knights+0.00on par
Port Melbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Knights ↓

Port Melbourne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Melbourne Knights or draw
66%
Melbourne Knights or Port Melbourne
77%
Draw or Port Melbourne
57%

Winning margin

Melbourne Knights wins by 2+
22%
Port Melbourne wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Melbourne Knights 1+ goals
82%
Melbourne Knights 2+ goals
51%
Melbourne Knights 3+ goals
24%
Port Melbourne 1+ goals
78%
Port Melbourne 2+ goals
44%
Port Melbourne 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Knights (draw refunded)
56%
Port Melbourne (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Knights at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.51 · 77 matches

Port Melbourne away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.79 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Knights attack 1.62 + Port Melbourne defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Port Melbourne attack 1.50 + Melbourne Knights defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Melbourne Knights scores more
43%
level
23%
Port Melbourne scores more
34%

Melbourne Knights at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Melbourne Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Melbourne Knights 3 – 0 Port Melbourne

Melbourne Knights beat Port Melbourne 3-0 in Victoria NPL on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Tompsett Stadium in Melbourne.