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Melbourne Knights vs Melbourne Srbija — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Melbourne Knights
Melbourne Knights
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Melbourne Srbija
Melbourne Srbija
J. Divin 86'
L. Kolic 63'
3/13/2026Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 5Knights Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Melbourne Knights58%
×Draw23%
Melbourne Srbija19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne Knights
1.80
Melbourne Srbija
0.92

Melbourne Knights creates 96% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 23 away

creates per match

Melbourne Knights
2.09
Melbourne Srbija
1.39

allows per match

Melbourne Knights
0.45
Melbourne Srbija
1.52

finishing

Melbourne Knights+0.00on par
Melbourne Srbija+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Knights ↓

Melbourne Srbija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Melbourne Knights or draw
81%
Melbourne Knights or Melbourne Srbija
77%
Draw or Melbourne Srbija
42%

Winning margin

Melbourne Knights wins by 2+
33%
Melbourne Srbija wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Melbourne Knights 1+ goals
83%
Melbourne Knights 2+ goals
54%
Melbourne Knights 3+ goals
27%
Melbourne Srbija 1+ goals
60%
Melbourne Srbija 2+ goals
23%
Melbourne Srbija 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Knights (draw refunded)
75%
Melbourne Srbija (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Knights at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Melbourne Srbija away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Knights attack 2.09 + Melbourne Srbija defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.80

Melbourne Srbija attack 1.39 + Melbourne Knights defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Melbourne Knights scores more
58%
level
23%
Melbourne Srbija scores more
19%

Melbourne Knights at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Melbourne Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'
L. Kolic
86'
J. Divin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Melbourne Knights 2 – 0 Melbourne Srbija

Melbourne Knights beat Melbourne Srbija 2-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on March 13, 2026.

Goals: L. Kolic (63'), J. Divin (86').

The match was played at Knights Stadium in Melbourne.