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Melbourne Knights vs Hume City — Victoria NPL 2026

Melbourne Knights
Melbourne Knights
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Hume City
Hume City
3/22/2024Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 7Knights Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Melbourne Knights38%
×Draw24%
Hume City38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne Knights
1.59
Hume City
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 86 away

creates per match

Melbourne Knights
1.62
Hume City
1.70

allows per match

Melbourne Knights
1.51
Hume City
1.56

finishing

Melbourne Knights+0.00on par
Hume City+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Knights ↓

Hume City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Melbourne Knights or draw
62%
Melbourne Knights or Hume City
76%
Draw or Hume City
62%

Winning margin

Melbourne Knights wins by 2+
19%
Hume City wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Melbourne Knights 1+ goals
80%
Melbourne Knights 2+ goals
47%
Melbourne Knights 3+ goals
21%
Hume City 1+ goals
80%
Hume City 2+ goals
47%
Hume City 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Knights (draw refunded)
50%
Hume City (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Knights at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.51 · 77 matches

Hume City away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Knights attack 1.62 + Hume City defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.59

Hume City attack 1.70 + Melbourne Knights defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Melbourne Knights scores more
38%
level
24%
Hume City scores more
38%

Melbourne Knights at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Melbourne Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Melbourne Knights vs Hume City

Hume City beat Melbourne Knights 5-2 in Victoria NPL on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Knights Stadium in Melbourne.