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Melbourne Knights vs Dandenong City — Victoria NPL 2026

Melbourne Knights
Melbourne Knights
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Dandenong City
Dandenong City
3/10/2024Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 5Knights Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Melbourne Knights42%
×Draw24%
Dandenong City34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne Knights
1.63
Dandenong City
1.43

Melbourne Knights creates 14% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 76 away

creates per match

Melbourne Knights
1.62
Dandenong City
1.34

allows per match

Melbourne Knights
1.51
Dandenong City
1.64

finishing

Melbourne Knights+0.00on par
Dandenong City+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Knights ↓

Dandenong City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Melbourne Knights or draw
66%
Melbourne Knights or Dandenong City
76%
Draw or Dandenong City
58%

Winning margin

Melbourne Knights wins by 2+
22%
Dandenong City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Melbourne Knights 1+ goals
80%
Melbourne Knights 2+ goals
48%
Melbourne Knights 3+ goals
22%
Dandenong City 1+ goals
76%
Dandenong City 2+ goals
42%
Dandenong City 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Knights (draw refunded)
56%
Dandenong City (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Knights at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.51 · 77 matches

Dandenong City away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.64 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Knights attack 1.62 + Dandenong City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.63

Dandenong City attack 1.34 + Melbourne Knights defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Melbourne Knights scores more
42%
level
24%
Dandenong City scores more
34%

Melbourne Knights at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Melbourne Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Melbourne Knights vs Dandenong City

Melbourne Knights and Dandenong City drew 2-2 in Victoria NPL on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Knights Stadium in Melbourne.