Melbourne Knights 3–3 Avondale: Result & Stats

Melbourne Knights

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Avondale

2/23/2024

Victoria NPL · Round 3Knights Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Melbourne Knights29%

×Draw23%

Avondale48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Melbourne KnightsExpected goals in this matchAvondale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.87

Melbourne Knights

1.40

Avondale

1.87

Avondale creates 34% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 87 away

1.62

creates per match

2.22

1.51

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Melbourne Knights

1.62

Avondale

2.22

allows per match

Melbourne Knights

1.51

Avondale

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Melbourne Knights+0.00on par

Avondale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Knights ↓

Avondale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Melbourne Knights or draw

52%

Melbourne Knights or Avondale

77%

Draw or Avondale

71%

Winning margin

Melbourne Knights wins by 2+

13%

Avondale wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Melbourne Knights 1+ goals

75%

Melbourne Knights 2+ goals

41%

Melbourne Knights 3+ goals

17%

Avondale 1+ goals

85%

Avondale 2+ goals

56%

Avondale 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Knights (draw refunded)

37%

Avondale (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Knights at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.51 · 77 matches

Avondale away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Knights attack 1.62 + Avondale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.40

Avondale attack 2.22 + Melbourne Knights defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Melbourne Knights scores more

29%

level

23%

Avondale scores more

48%

Avondale at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Avondale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff