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Melbourne City W vs Nasaf W — AFC Women's Champions League 2024

Melbourne City W
Melbourne City Wadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nasaf W
Nasaf W
3/29/2026AFC Women's Champions LeagueAFC Women's Champions League · Quarter-finalsThe Home of the Matildas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Melbourne City W53%
×Draw24%
Nasaf W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne City W
1.76
Nasaf W
1.10

Melbourne City W creates 60% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Melbourne City W
2.86
Nasaf W
1.50

allows per match

Melbourne City W
0.71
Nasaf W
0.67

finishing

Melbourne City W+0.00on par
Nasaf W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City W ↓

Nasaf W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Melbourne City W or draw
76%
Melbourne City W or Nasaf W
76%
Draw or Nasaf W
47%

Winning margin

Melbourne City W wins by 2+
29%
Nasaf W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Melbourne City W 1+ goals
83%
Melbourne City W 2+ goals
52%
Melbourne City W 3+ goals
26%
Nasaf W 1+ goals
67%
Nasaf W 2+ goals
30%
Nasaf W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City W (draw refunded)
69%
Nasaf W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City W at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Nasaf W away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City W attack 2.86 + Nasaf W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.76

Nasaf W attack 1.50 + Melbourne City W defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Melbourne City W scores more
53%
level
24%
Nasaf W scores more
24%

Melbourne City W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Melbourne City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Women's Champions League: Melbourne City W 2–1 Nasaf W

Melbourne City W beat Nasaf W 2-1 in AFC Women's Champions League on March 29, 2026.

The match was played at The Home of the Matildas in Melbourne.