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Melbourne City W vs Lion City W — AFC Women's Champions League 2024

Melbourne City W
Melbourne City W
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Lion City W
Lion City W
11/13/2025AFC Women's Champions LeagueAFC Women's Champions League · Group Stage - 1Thong Nhat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Melbourne City W87%
×Draw9%
Lion City W4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne City W
3.30
Lion City W
0.60

Melbourne City W creates 450% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Melbourne City W
2.86
Lion City W
0.50

allows per match

Melbourne City W
0.71
Lion City W
3.75

finishing

Melbourne City W+0.00on par
Lion City W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City W ↓

Lion City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Melbourne City W or draw
96%
Melbourne City W or Lion City W
91%
Draw or Lion City W
13%

Winning margin

Melbourne City W wins by 2+
70%
Lion City W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Melbourne City W 1+ goals
96%
Melbourne City W 2+ goals
83%
Melbourne City W 3+ goals
62%
Lion City W 1+ goals
45%
Lion City W 2+ goals
12%
Lion City W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City W (draw refunded)
96%
Lion City W (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City W at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Lion City W away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City W attack 2.86 + Lion City W defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 3.30

Lion City W attack 0.50 + Melbourne City W defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Melbourne City W scores more
87%
level
9%
Lion City W scores more
4%

Melbourne City W at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Melbourne City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Women's Champions League: Melbourne City W 5–0 Lion City W

Melbourne City W beat Lion City W 5-0 in AFC Women's Champions League on November 13, 2025.

The match was played at Thong Nhat Stadium in Ho Chi Minh City.