Melbourne City W 3–0 Hồ Chí Minh City W

Melbourne City W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Hồ Chí Minh City W

11/19/2025

AFC Women's Champions League · Group Stage - 3Thong Nhat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Melbourne City W72%

×Draw17%

Hồ Chí Minh City W11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Melbourne City WExpected goals in this matchHồ Chí Minh City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

0.77

Melbourne City W

2.34

Hồ Chí Minh City W

0.77

Melbourne City W creates 204% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

2.86

creates per match

0.83

0.71

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Melbourne City W

2.86

Hồ Chí Minh City W

0.83

allows per match

Melbourne City W

0.71

Hồ Chí Minh City W

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Melbourne City W+0.00on par

Hồ Chí Minh City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City W ↓

Hồ Chí Minh City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Melbourne City W or draw

89%

Melbourne City W or Hồ Chí Minh City W

83%

Draw or Hồ Chí Minh City W

28%

Winning margin

Melbourne City W wins by 2+

49%

Hồ Chí Minh City W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Melbourne City W 1+ goals

90%

Melbourne City W 2+ goals

67%

Melbourne City W 3+ goals

41%

Hồ Chí Minh City W 1+ goals

54%

Hồ Chí Minh City W 2+ goals

18%

Hồ Chí Minh City W 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City W (draw refunded)

87%

Hồ Chí Minh City W (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City W at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Hồ Chí Minh City W away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City W attack 2.86 + Hồ Chí Minh City W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.34

Hồ Chí Minh City W attack 0.83 + Melbourne City W defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Melbourne City W scores more

72%

level

17%

Hồ Chí Minh City W scores more

11%

Melbourne City W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Melbourne City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff