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Melbourne City W vs Bam Khatoon W — AFC Women's Champions League 2024

Melbourne City W
Melbourne City W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Bam Khatoon W
Bam Khatoon W
10/6/2024AFC Women's Champions LeagueAFC Women's Champions League · Group Stage - 1BG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Melbourne City W68%
×Draw19%
Bam Khatoon W13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne City W
2.18
Bam Khatoon W
0.85

Melbourne City W creates 156% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Melbourne City W
2.86
Bam Khatoon W
1.00

allows per match

Melbourne City W
0.71
Bam Khatoon W
1.50

finishing

Melbourne City W+0.00on par
Bam Khatoon W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City W ↓

Bam Khatoon W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Melbourne City W or draw
87%
Melbourne City W or Bam Khatoon W
81%
Draw or Bam Khatoon W
32%

Winning margin

Melbourne City W wins by 2+
44%
Bam Khatoon W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Melbourne City W 1+ goals
89%
Melbourne City W 2+ goals
64%
Melbourne City W 3+ goals
37%
Bam Khatoon W 1+ goals
57%
Bam Khatoon W 2+ goals
21%
Bam Khatoon W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City W (draw refunded)
83%
Bam Khatoon W (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City W at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Bam Khatoon W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City W attack 2.86 + Bam Khatoon W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.18

Bam Khatoon W attack 1.00 + Melbourne City W defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Melbourne City W scores more
68%
level
19%
Bam Khatoon W scores more
13%

Melbourne City W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Melbourne City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Melbourne City W vs Bam Khatoon W

Melbourne City W beat Bam Khatoon W 2-1 in AFC Women's Champions League on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at BG Stadium in Pathum Thani.