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Melbourne City vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — AFC Champions League 2018

Melbourne City
Melbourne City
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
9/16/2025AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · League Phase East - 1AAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Melbourne City41%
×Draw31%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne City
1.11
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.88

Melbourne City creates 26% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Melbourne City
1.00
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.11

allows per match

Melbourne City
0.64
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.22

finishing

Melbourne City+0.00on par
Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Melbourne City or draw
71%
Melbourne City or Sanfrecce Hiroshima
69%
Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima
59%

Winning margin

Melbourne City wins by 2+
17%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Melbourne City 1+ goals
67%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
30%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
10%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
59%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
22%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City (draw refunded)
59%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City attack 1.00 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.11 + Melbourne City defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Melbourne City scores more
41%
level
31%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
29%

Melbourne City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Melbourne City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Melbourne City vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Sanfrecce Hiroshima beat Melbourne City 2-0 in AFC Champions League on September 16, 2025.

The match was played at AAMI Park in Melbourne.