Melbourne City 2–1 Newcastle Jets FC

Melbourne City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Newcastle Jets FC

1/6/2019

A-League · Round 11AAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Melbourne City53%

×Draw23%

Newcastle Jets FC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Melbourne CityExpected goals in this matchNewcastle Jets FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.19

Melbourne City

1.87

Newcastle Jets FC

1.19

Melbourne City creates 57% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 107 away

2.07

creates per match

1.33

1.04

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Melbourne City

2.07

Newcastle Jets FC

1.33

allows per match

Melbourne City

1.04

Newcastle Jets FC

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Melbourne City+0.00on par

Newcastle Jets FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City ↓

Newcastle Jets FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Melbourne City or draw

76%

Melbourne City or Newcastle Jets FC

77%

Draw or Newcastle Jets FC

47%

Winning margin

Melbourne City wins by 2+

30%

Newcastle Jets FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Melbourne City 1+ goals

85%

Melbourne City 2+ goals

56%

Melbourne City 3+ goals

29%

Newcastle Jets FC 1+ goals

70%

Newcastle Jets FC 2+ goals

33%

Newcastle Jets FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City (draw refunded)

69%

Newcastle Jets FC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.04 · 113 matches

Newcastle Jets FC away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City attack 2.07 + Newcastle Jets FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.87

Newcastle Jets FC attack 1.33 + Melbourne City defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Melbourne City scores more

53%

level

23%

Newcastle Jets FC scores more

24%

Melbourne City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Melbourne City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff