Melbourne City 0–1 Melbourne Victory

Melbourne City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Melbourne Victory

12/20/2025

A-League · Round 9AAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Melbourne City50%

×Draw24%

Melbourne Victory26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Melbourne CityExpected goals in this matchMelbourne Victory

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.20

Melbourne City

1.75

Melbourne Victory

1.20

Melbourne City creates 46% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 109 away

2.07

creates per match

1.36

1.04

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Melbourne City

2.07

Melbourne Victory

1.36

allows per match

Melbourne City

1.04

Melbourne Victory

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Melbourne City+0.00on par

Melbourne Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City ↓

Melbourne Victory →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Melbourne City or draw

74%

Melbourne City or Melbourne Victory

76%

Draw or Melbourne Victory

50%

Winning margin

Melbourne City wins by 2+

27%

Melbourne Victory wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Melbourne City 1+ goals

83%

Melbourne City 2+ goals

52%

Melbourne City 3+ goals

25%

Melbourne Victory 1+ goals

70%

Melbourne Victory 2+ goals

34%

Melbourne Victory 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City (draw refunded)

66%

Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.04 · 113 matches

Melbourne Victory away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.44 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City attack 2.07 + Melbourne Victory defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.75

Melbourne Victory attack 1.36 + Melbourne City defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Melbourne City scores more

50%

level

24%

Melbourne Victory scores more

26%

Melbourne City at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Melbourne City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff