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Melbourne City vs Johor Darul Takzim FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Melbourne City
Melbourne City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Johor Darul Takzim FC
Johor Darul Takzim FC
11/25/2025AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · League Phase East - 5AAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Melbourne City52%
×Draw26%
Johor Darul Takzim FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne City
1.48
Johor Darul Takzim FC
0.86

Melbourne City creates 72% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 25 away

creates per match

Melbourne City
1.00
Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.08

allows per match

Melbourne City
0.64
Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.96

finishing

Melbourne City+0.00on par
Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City ↓

Johor Darul Takzim FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Melbourne City or draw
78%
Melbourne City or Johor Darul Takzim FC
74%
Draw or Johor Darul Takzim FC
48%

Winning margin

Melbourne City wins by 2+
26%
Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Melbourne City 1+ goals
77%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
43%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
19%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals
58%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals
21%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City (draw refunded)
70%
Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City attack 1.00 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.48

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 1.08 + Melbourne City defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Melbourne City scores more
52%
level
26%
Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more
22%

Melbourne City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Melbourne City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Melbourne City vs Johor Darul Takzim FC

Melbourne City beat Johor Darul Takzim FC 2-0 in AFC Champions League on November 25, 2025.

The match was played at AAMI Park in Melbourne.