Melbourne City 5–0 Central Coast Mariners FC

Melbourne City

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Central Coast Mariners FC

R. Najjarine 90+2'

S. Harrison 55', 35'

D. Vidošić 50'

R. McGree 42'

4/26/2019

A-League · Round 27AAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Melbourne City52%

×Draw23%

Central Coast Mariners FC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Melbourne CityExpected goals in this matchCentral Coast Mariners FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.23

Melbourne City

1.86

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.23

Melbourne City creates 51% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 109 away

2.07

creates per match

1.42

1.04

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Melbourne City

2.07

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.42

allows per match

Melbourne City

1.04

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Melbourne City+0.00on par

Central Coast Mariners FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City ↓

Central Coast Mariners FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Melbourne City or draw

75%

Melbourne City or Central Coast Mariners FC

77%

Draw or Central Coast Mariners FC

48%

Winning margin

Melbourne City wins by 2+

29%

Central Coast Mariners FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Melbourne City 1+ goals

84%

Melbourne City 2+ goals

55%

Melbourne City 3+ goals

28%

Central Coast Mariners FC 1+ goals

71%

Central Coast Mariners FC 2+ goals

35%

Central Coast Mariners FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City (draw refunded)

67%

Central Coast Mariners FC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.04 · 113 matches

Central Coast Mariners FC away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.65 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City attack 2.07 + Central Coast Mariners FC defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.86

Central Coast Mariners FC attack 1.42 + Melbourne City defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Melbourne City scores more

52%

level

23%

Central Coast Mariners FC scores more

25%

Melbourne City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Melbourne City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

S. Harrison

Melbourne City · F

9.0

Match Events

35'

S. Harrison↳ R. McGree

42'

R. McGree↳ S. Jamieson

44'

Scott Jamieson

50'

D. Vidošić↳ L. Wales

55'

S. Harrison↳ L. Wales

56'

D. Diaz← A. Hoole

57'

C. Metcalfe← L. Brattan

69'

L. Miller← T. Hiariej

72'

Lewis Miller

73'

R. Najjarine← Kearyn Baccus

81'

I. Abdulahi← D. Vidošić

87'

Aiden O'Neill

88'

P. Kekeris← A. ONeill

90+2'

R. Najjarine↳ S. Harrison

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MelbourneCentral

Overview

56%Possession44%

10Total Shots8

2Corners3

16Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots8

6On Target2

0Off Target5

4Blocked1

6Inside Box4

4Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

543Total Passes422

458Accurate Passes324

84%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0