Central Coast Mariners 2–1 Melbourne City

Central Coast Mariners

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Melbourne City

4/2/2024

A-League · Round 21Industree Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Central Coast Mariners36%

×Draw24%

Melbourne City40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Coast MarinersExpected goals in this matchMelbourne City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.58

Central Coast Mariners

1.50

Melbourne City

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 108 away

1.55

creates per match

1.56

1.61

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Central Coast Mariners

1.55

Melbourne City

1.56

allows per match

Central Coast Mariners

1.61

Melbourne City

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par

Melbourne City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast Mariners ↓

Melbourne City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Central Coast Mariners or draw

60%

Central Coast Mariners or Melbourne City

76%

Draw or Melbourne City

64%

Winning margin

Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+

17%

Melbourne City wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals

78%

Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals

44%

Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals

19%

Melbourne City 1+ goals

79%

Melbourne City 2+ goals

47%

Melbourne City 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)

48%

Melbourne City (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast Mariners at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 108 matches

Melbourne City away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.45 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast Mariners attack 1.55 + Melbourne City defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.50

Melbourne City attack 1.56 + Central Coast Mariners defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Central Coast Mariners scores more

36%

level

24%

Melbourne City scores more

40%

Melbourne City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Melbourne City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff