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Melbourne City vs Central Coast Mariners — A-League 2018

Melbourne City
Melbourne City
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Central Coast Mariners
Central Coast Mariners
12/17/2023A-LeagueA-League · Round 8AAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Melbourne City52%
×Draw23%
Central Coast Mariners25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne City
1.86
Central Coast Mariners
1.23

Melbourne City creates 51% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 109 away

creates per match

Melbourne City
2.07
Central Coast Mariners
1.42

allows per match

Melbourne City
1.04
Central Coast Mariners
1.65

finishing

Melbourne City+0.00on par
Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City ↓

Central Coast Mariners →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Melbourne City or draw
75%
Melbourne City or Central Coast Mariners
77%
Draw or Central Coast Mariners
48%

Winning margin

Melbourne City wins by 2+
29%
Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Melbourne City 1+ goals
84%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
55%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
28%
Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals
71%
Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals
35%
Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City (draw refunded)
67%
Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.04 · 113 matches

Central Coast Mariners away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.65 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City attack 2.07 + Central Coast Mariners defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.86

Central Coast Mariners attack 1.42 + Melbourne City defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Melbourne City scores more
52%
level
23%
Central Coast Mariners scores more
25%

Melbourne City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Melbourne City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Melbourne City 3–3 Central Coast Mariners

Melbourne City and Central Coast Mariners drew 3-3 in A-League on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at AAMI Park in Melbourne.