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Melbourne City II vs Avondale — Victoria NPL 2026

Melbourne City II
Melbourne City II
Preview
05:00
Avondale
Avondale
7/25/2026Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 22
47%
Avondale
model favours
29%24%47%

Avondale score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Melbourne City II29%
×Draw24%
Avondale47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne City II
1.25
Avondale
1.67

Avondale creates 34% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 87 away

creates per match

Melbourne City II
1.33
Avondale
2.22

allows per match

Melbourne City II
1.11
Avondale
1.17

finishing

Melbourne City II+0.00on par
Avondale+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City II ↓

Avondale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Melbourne City II or draw
53%
Melbourne City II or Avondale
76%
Draw or Avondale
71%

Winning margin

Melbourne City II wins by 2+
12%
Avondale wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Melbourne City II 1+ goals
71%
Melbourne City II 2+ goals
36%
Melbourne City II 3+ goals
13%
Avondale 1+ goals
81%
Avondale 2+ goals
50%
Avondale 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City II (draw refunded)
38%
Avondale (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Avondale away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City II attack 1.33 + Avondale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Avondale attack 2.22 + Melbourne City II defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Melbourne City II scores more
29%
level
24%
Avondale scores more
47%

Avondale at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Avondale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 32% of Avondale’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
DWWLL
Avondale
LLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Melbourne City II face Avondale (Victoria NPL)

Victoria NPL returns with Melbourne City II hosting Avondale. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.