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Avondale vs Melbourne City II — Victoria NPL 2026

Avondale
Avondale
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Melbourne City II
Melbourne City II
4/18/2026Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 9Avenger park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Avondale43%
×Draw22%
Melbourne City II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avondale
1.96
Melbourne City II
1.76

Avondale creates 11% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 10 away

creates per match

Avondale
2.71
Melbourne City II
2.50

allows per match

Avondale
1.02
Melbourne City II
1.20

finishing

Avondale+0.00on par
Melbourne City II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avondale ↓

Melbourne City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Avondale or draw
65%
Avondale or Melbourne City II
78%
Draw or Melbourne City II
57%

Winning margin

Avondale wins by 2+
24%
Melbourne City II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Avondale 1+ goals
86%
Avondale 2+ goals
58%
Avondale 3+ goals
31%
Melbourne City II 1+ goals
83%
Melbourne City II 2+ goals
52%
Melbourne City II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Avondale (draw refunded)
55%
Melbourne City II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avondale at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Melbourne City II away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avondale attack 2.71 + Melbourne City II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.96

Melbourne City II attack 2.50 + Avondale defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Avondale scores more
43%
level
22%
Melbourne City II scores more
35%

Avondale at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Avondale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avondale vs Melbourne City II

Avondale beat Melbourne City II 3-1 in Victoria NPL on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at Avenger park in Melbourne.