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Melbo IL vs Lokomotiv Oslo — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Melbo IL
Melbo IL
CANC
13:00
Lokomotiv Oslo
Lokomotiv Oslo
8/9/20203. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 1Havfisk Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Melbo IL31%
×Draw22%
Lokomotiv Oslo47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbo IL
1.54
Lokomotiv Oslo
1.94

Lokomotiv Oslo creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 19 away

creates per match

Melbo IL
1.29
Lokomotiv Oslo
1.74

allows per match

Melbo IL
2.14
Lokomotiv Oslo
1.79

finishing

Melbo IL+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Oslo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbo IL ↓

Lokomotiv Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Melbo IL or draw
53%
Melbo IL or Lokomotiv Oslo
78%
Draw or Lokomotiv Oslo
69%

Winning margin

Melbo IL wins by 2+
14%
Lokomotiv Oslo wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Melbo IL 1+ goals
79%
Melbo IL 2+ goals
45%
Melbo IL 3+ goals
20%
Lokomotiv Oslo 1+ goals
86%
Lokomotiv Oslo 2+ goals
58%
Lokomotiv Oslo 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Melbo IL (draw refunded)
40%
Lokomotiv Oslo (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbo IL at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Lokomotiv Oslo away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbo IL attack 1.29 + Lokomotiv Oslo defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.54

Lokomotiv Oslo attack 1.74 + Melbo IL defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Melbo IL scores more
31%
level
22%
Lokomotiv Oslo scores more
47%

Lokomotiv Oslo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lokomotiv Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Melbo IL vs Lokomotiv Oslo — Match Preview

Melbo IL face Lokomotiv Oslo on August 9, 2020 in this 3. Division - Girone 6 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Melbo IL host Lokomotiv Oslo at Havfisk Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.