Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Melbo IL vs Finnsnes — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Melbo IL
Melbo IL
CANC
14:00
Finnsnes
Finnsnes
8/22/20203. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 3Havfisk Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Melbo IL54%
×Draw20%
Finnsnes26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbo IL
2.23
Finnsnes
1.49

Melbo IL creates 50% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Melbo IL
1.29
Finnsnes
0.83

allows per match

Melbo IL
2.14
Finnsnes
3.17

finishing

Melbo IL+0.00on par
Finnsnes+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbo IL ↓

Finnsnes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Melbo IL or draw
74%
Melbo IL or Finnsnes
80%
Draw or Finnsnes
46%

Winning margin

Melbo IL wins by 2+
33%
Finnsnes wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Melbo IL 1+ goals
89%
Melbo IL 2+ goals
65%
Melbo IL 3+ goals
38%
Finnsnes 1+ goals
77%
Finnsnes 2+ goals
44%
Finnsnes 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Melbo IL (draw refunded)
68%
Finnsnes (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbo IL at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Finnsnes away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbo IL attack 1.29 + Finnsnes defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.23

Finnsnes attack 0.83 + Melbo IL defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Melbo IL scores more
54%
level
20%
Finnsnes scores more
26%

Melbo IL at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Melbo IL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Melbo IL host Finnsnes

August 22, 2020: Melbo IL take on Finnsnes in 3. Division - Girone 6. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Melbo IL host Finnsnes at Havfisk Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.