Melaka United 2–1 Sabah FA: Result & Stats

Melaka United

2 – 1

Sabah FA

11/18/2021

Malaysia Cup · Quarter-finalsStadium Hang Jebat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Melaka United42%

×Draw26%

Sabah FA33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Melaka UnitedExpected goals in this matchSabah FA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.26

Melaka United

1.45

Sabah FA

1.26

Melaka United creates 15% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 15 away

1.50

creates per match

1.27

1.25

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Melaka United

1.50

Sabah FA

1.27

allows per match

Melaka United

1.25

Sabah FA

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Melaka United+0.00on par

Sabah FA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melaka United ↓

Sabah FA →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Melaka United or draw

67%

Melaka United or Sabah FA

74%

Draw or Sabah FA

58%

Winning margin

Melaka United wins by 2+

20%

Sabah FA wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Melaka United 1+ goals

77%

Melaka United 2+ goals

42%

Melaka United 3+ goals

18%

Sabah FA 1+ goals

72%

Sabah FA 2+ goals

36%

Sabah FA 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Melaka United (draw refunded)

56%

Sabah FA (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Melaka United at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Sabah FA away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Melaka United attack 1.50 + Sabah FA defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Sabah FA attack 1.27 + Melaka United defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Melaka United scores more

42%

level

26%

Sabah FA scores more

33%

Melaka United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Melaka United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff