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Melaka United vs Pdrm — Malaysia Cup 2019

Melaka United
Melaka United
FT
3 – 1
Pdrm
Pdrm
8/4/2019Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Group Stage - 1Stadium Hang Jebat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Melaka United45%
×Draw27%
Pdrm28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melaka United
1.40
Pdrm
1.05

Melaka United creates 33% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Melaka United
1.50
Pdrm
0.86

allows per match

Melaka United
1.25
Pdrm
1.29

finishing

Melaka United+0.00on par
Pdrm+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melaka United ↓

Pdrm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Melaka United or draw
72%
Melaka United or Pdrm
73%
Draw or Pdrm
55%

Winning margin

Melaka United wins by 2+
21%
Pdrm wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Melaka United 1+ goals
75%
Melaka United 2+ goals
41%
Melaka United 3+ goals
17%
Pdrm 1+ goals
65%
Pdrm 2+ goals
28%
Pdrm 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Melaka United (draw refunded)
61%
Pdrm (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melaka United at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Pdrm away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melaka United attack 1.50 + Pdrm defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

Pdrm attack 0.86 + Melaka United defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Melaka United scores more
45%
level
27%
Pdrm scores more
28%

Melaka United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Melaka United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malaysia Cup: Melaka United 3–1 Pdrm

Melaka United beat Pdrm 3-1 in Malaysia Cup on August 4, 2019.

The match was played at Stadium Hang Jebat in Melaka.