Melaka United 2–0 Kedah: Result & Stats

Melaka United

2 – 0

Kedah

11/9/2021

Malaysia Cup · Group Stage - 5Stadium Hang Jebat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Melaka United43%

×Draw23%

Kedah34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Melaka UnitedExpected goals in this matchKedah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.49

Melaka United

1.71

Kedah

1.49

Melaka United creates 15% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.50

creates per match

1.73

1.25

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Melaka United

1.50

Kedah

1.73

allows per match

Melaka United

1.25

Kedah

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Melaka United+0.00on par

Kedah+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melaka United ↓

Kedah →

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Melaka United or draw

66%

Melaka United or Kedah

77%

Draw or Kedah

57%

Winning margin

Melaka United wins by 2+

22%

Kedah wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Melaka United 1+ goals

82%

Melaka United 2+ goals

51%

Melaka United 3+ goals

24%

Kedah 1+ goals

77%

Kedah 2+ goals

44%

Kedah 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Melaka United (draw refunded)

56%

Kedah (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Melaka United at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Kedah away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Melaka United attack 1.50 + Kedah defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.71

Kedah attack 1.73 + Melaka United defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Melaka United scores more

43%

level

23%

Kedah scores more

34%

Melaka United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Melaka United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff