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Mekelle Kenema vs Sebeta Kenema — Premier League 2019

Mekelle Kenema
Mekelle Kenema
FT
2 – 1
Sebeta Kenema
Sebeta Kenema
1/18/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Tigray Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Mekelle Kenema41%
×Draw29%
Sebeta Kenema30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mekelle Kenema
1.20
Sebeta Kenema
0.97

Mekelle Kenema creates 24% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 35 away

creates per match

Mekelle Kenema
1.09
Sebeta Kenema
1.00

allows per match

Mekelle Kenema
0.93
Sebeta Kenema
1.31

finishing

Mekelle Kenema+0.00on par
Sebeta Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mekelle Kenema ↓

Sebeta Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mekelle Kenema or draw
70%
Mekelle Kenema or Sebeta Kenema
71%
Draw or Sebeta Kenema
59%

Winning margin

Mekelle Kenema wins by 2+
18%
Sebeta Kenema wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mekelle Kenema 1+ goals
70%
Mekelle Kenema 2+ goals
34%
Mekelle Kenema 3+ goals
12%
Sebeta Kenema 1+ goals
62%
Sebeta Kenema 2+ goals
25%
Sebeta Kenema 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mekelle Kenema (draw refunded)
58%
Sebeta Kenema (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mekelle Kenema at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

Sebeta Kenema away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.31 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mekelle Kenema attack 1.09 + Sebeta Kenema defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Sebeta Kenema attack 1.00 + Mekelle Kenema defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mekelle Kenema scores more
41%
level
29%
Sebeta Kenema scores more
30%

Mekelle Kenema at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mekelle Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Mekelle Kenema 2–1 Sebeta Kenema

Mekelle Kenema beat Sebeta Kenema 2-1 in Premier League on January 18, 2020.

The match was played at Tigray Stadium in Mek'ele.