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Mekelakeya vs Sidama Bunna — Premier League 2019

Mekelakeya
Mekelakeya
FT
2 – 1
Sidama Bunna
Sidama Bunna
2/3/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Mekelakeya35%
×Draw29%
Sidama Bunna36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mekelakeya
1.08
Sidama Bunna
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 102 away

creates per match

Mekelakeya
1.04
Sidama Bunna
1.19

allows per match

Mekelakeya
1.00
Sidama Bunna
1.11

finishing

Mekelakeya+0.00on par
Sidama Bunna+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mekelakeya ↓

Sidama Bunna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mekelakeya or draw
64%
Mekelakeya or Sidama Bunna
71%
Draw or Sidama Bunna
65%

Winning margin

Mekelakeya wins by 2+
14%
Sidama Bunna wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mekelakeya 1+ goals
66%
Mekelakeya 2+ goals
29%
Mekelakeya 3+ goals
10%
Sidama Bunna 1+ goals
66%
Sidama Bunna 2+ goals
30%
Sidama Bunna 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mekelakeya (draw refunded)
50%
Sidama Bunna (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mekelakeya at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 81 matches

Sidama Bunna away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.11 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mekelakeya attack 1.04 + Sidama Bunna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Sidama Bunna attack 1.19 + Mekelakeya defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Mekelakeya scores more
35%
level
29%
Sidama Bunna scores more
36%

Sidama Bunna at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sidama Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Mekelakeya 2–1 Sidama Bunna

Mekelakeya beat Sidama Bunna 2-1 in Premier League on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.