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Mekelakeya vs Shashemene Kenema — Premier League 2019

Mekelakeya
Mekelakeya
FT
2 – 2
Shashemene Kenema
Shashemene Kenema
5/24/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mekelakeya41%
×Draw30%
Shashemene Kenema30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mekelakeya
1.16
Shashemene Kenema
0.94

Mekelakeya creates 23% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 15 away

creates per match

Mekelakeya
1.04
Shashemene Kenema
0.87

allows per match

Mekelakeya
1.00
Shashemene Kenema
1.27

finishing

Mekelakeya+0.00on par
Shashemene Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mekelakeya ↓

Shashemene Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mekelakeya or draw
70%
Mekelakeya or Shashemene Kenema
70%
Draw or Shashemene Kenema
59%

Winning margin

Mekelakeya wins by 2+
17%
Shashemene Kenema wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mekelakeya 1+ goals
69%
Mekelakeya 2+ goals
32%
Mekelakeya 3+ goals
11%
Shashemene Kenema 1+ goals
61%
Shashemene Kenema 2+ goals
24%
Shashemene Kenema 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mekelakeya (draw refunded)
58%
Shashemene Kenema (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mekelakeya at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 81 matches

Shashemene Kenema away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mekelakeya attack 1.04 + Shashemene Kenema defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Shashemene Kenema attack 0.87 + Mekelakeya defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mekelakeya scores more
41%
level
30%
Shashemene Kenema scores more
30%

Mekelakeya at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mekelakeya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Mekelakeya 2–2 Shashemene Kenema

Mekelakeya and Shashemene Kenema drew 2-2 in Premier League on May 24, 2024.

The match was played at Hawassa Stadium in Hawassa.