Mekelakeya 0–0 Jimma Aba Jifar: Result & Stats

Mekelakeya

FT

0 – 0

Jimma Aba Jifar

3/2/2022

Premier League · Round 15Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Mekelakeya44%

×Draw30%

Jimma Aba Jifar26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MekelakeyaExpected goals in this matchJimma Aba Jifar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.85

Mekelakeya

1.19

Jimma Aba Jifar

0.85

Mekelakeya creates 40% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 35 away

1.04

creates per match

0.71

1.00

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Mekelakeya

1.04

Jimma Aba Jifar

0.71

allows per match

Mekelakeya

1.00

Jimma Aba Jifar

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mekelakeya+0.00on par

Jimma Aba Jifar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mekelakeya ↓

Jimma Aba Jifar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Mekelakeya or draw

74%

Mekelakeya or Jimma Aba Jifar

70%

Draw or Jimma Aba Jifar

56%

Winning margin

Mekelakeya wins by 2+

19%

Jimma Aba Jifar wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mekelakeya 1+ goals

70%

Mekelakeya 2+ goals

33%

Mekelakeya 3+ goals

12%

Jimma Aba Jifar 1+ goals

57%

Jimma Aba Jifar 2+ goals

21%

Jimma Aba Jifar 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Mekelakeya (draw refunded)

63%

Jimma Aba Jifar (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mekelakeya at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 81 matches

Jimma Aba Jifar away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mekelakeya attack 1.04 + Jimma Aba Jifar defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

Jimma Aba Jifar attack 0.71 + Mekelakeya defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mekelakeya scores more

44%

level

30%

Jimma Aba Jifar scores more

26%

Mekelakeya at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mekelakeya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff