Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mekelakeya vs Ethiopian Medhin — Premier League 2019

Mekelakeya
Mekelakeya
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ethiopian Medhin
Ethiopian Medhin
12/11/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Mekelakeya28%
×Draw29%
Ethiopian Medhin43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mekelakeya
0.93
Ethiopian Medhin
1.22

Ethiopian Medhin creates 31% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 66 away

creates per match

Mekelakeya
1.04
Ethiopian Medhin
1.44

allows per match

Mekelakeya
1.00
Ethiopian Medhin
0.82

finishing

Mekelakeya+0.00on par
Ethiopian Medhin+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mekelakeya ↓

Ethiopian Medhin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mekelakeya or draw
57%
Mekelakeya or Ethiopian Medhin
71%
Draw or Ethiopian Medhin
72%

Winning margin

Mekelakeya wins by 2+
10%
Ethiopian Medhin wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Mekelakeya 1+ goals
61%
Mekelakeya 2+ goals
24%
Mekelakeya 3+ goals
7%
Ethiopian Medhin 1+ goals
70%
Ethiopian Medhin 2+ goals
34%
Ethiopian Medhin 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mekelakeya (draw refunded)
40%
Ethiopian Medhin (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mekelakeya at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 81 matches

Ethiopian Medhin away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.82 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mekelakeya attack 1.04 + Ethiopian Medhin defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.93

Ethiopian Medhin attack 1.44 + Mekelakeya defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mekelakeya scores more
28%
level
29%
Ethiopian Medhin scores more
43%

Ethiopian Medhin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ethiopian Medhin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mekelakeya vs Ethiopian Medhin

Mekelakeya and Ethiopian Medhin drew 0-0 in Premier League on December 11, 2024.

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.