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Mekelakeya vs Ethiopia Bunna — Premier League 2019

Mekelakeya
Mekelakeya
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ethiopia Bunna
Ethiopia Bunna
12/31/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Addis Abeba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Mekelakeya35%
×Draw30%
Ethiopia Bunna36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mekelakeya
1.04
Ethiopia Bunna
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 102 away

creates per match

Mekelakeya
1.04
Ethiopia Bunna
1.11

allows per match

Mekelakeya
1.00
Ethiopia Bunna
1.03

finishing

Mekelakeya+0.00on par
Ethiopia Bunna+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mekelakeya ↓

Ethiopia Bunna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mekelakeya or draw
64%
Mekelakeya or Ethiopia Bunna
70%
Draw or Ethiopia Bunna
65%

Winning margin

Mekelakeya wins by 2+
13%
Ethiopia Bunna wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mekelakeya 1+ goals
65%
Mekelakeya 2+ goals
28%
Mekelakeya 3+ goals
9%
Ethiopia Bunna 1+ goals
65%
Ethiopia Bunna 2+ goals
29%
Ethiopia Bunna 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mekelakeya (draw refunded)
49%
Ethiopia Bunna (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mekelakeya at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 81 matches

Ethiopia Bunna away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mekelakeya attack 1.04 + Ethiopia Bunna defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Ethiopia Bunna attack 1.11 + Mekelakeya defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Mekelakeya scores more
35%
level
30%
Ethiopia Bunna scores more
36%

Ethiopia Bunna at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Ethiopia Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mekelakeya vs Ethiopia Bunna

Ethiopia Bunna beat Mekelakeya 1-0 in Premier League on December 31, 2025.

The match was played at Addis Abeba Stadium in Addis Abeba.