Mekelakeya 0–1 Bahardar: Result & Stats

Mekelakeya

FT

0 – 1

Bahardar

3/7/2024

Premier League · Round 17Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Mekelakeya31%

×Draw30%

Bahardar38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MekelakeyaExpected goals in this matchBahardar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.08

Mekelakeya

0.95

Bahardar

1.08

Bahardar creates 14% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 103 away

1.04

creates per match

1.16

1.00

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Mekelakeya

1.04

Bahardar

1.16

allows per match

Mekelakeya

1.00

Bahardar

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mekelakeya+0.00on par

Bahardar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mekelakeya ↓

Bahardar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Mekelakeya or draw

62%

Mekelakeya or Bahardar

70%

Draw or Bahardar

69%

Winning margin

Mekelakeya wins by 2+

11%

Bahardar wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mekelakeya 1+ goals

61%

Mekelakeya 2+ goals

25%

Mekelakeya 3+ goals

7%

Bahardar 1+ goals

66%

Bahardar 2+ goals

29%

Bahardar 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Mekelakeya (draw refunded)

45%

Bahardar (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mekelakeya at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 81 matches

Bahardar away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mekelakeya attack 1.04 + Bahardar defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.95

Bahardar attack 1.16 + Mekelakeya defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mekelakeya scores more

31%

level

30%

Bahardar scores more

38%

Bahardar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bahardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff