Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mekelakeya vs Awassa Kenema — Premier League 2019

Mekelakeya
Mekelakeya
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Awassa Kenema
Awassa Kenema
4/19/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Mekelakeya37%
×Draw29%
Awassa Kenema34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mekelakeya
1.13
Awassa Kenema
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 100 away

creates per match

Mekelakeya
1.04
Awassa Kenema
1.14

allows per match

Mekelakeya
1.00
Awassa Kenema
1.22

finishing

Mekelakeya+0.00on par
Awassa Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mekelakeya ↓

Awassa Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mekelakeya or draw
66%
Mekelakeya or Awassa Kenema
71%
Draw or Awassa Kenema
63%

Winning margin

Mekelakeya wins by 2+
15%
Awassa Kenema wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mekelakeya 1+ goals
68%
Mekelakeya 2+ goals
31%
Mekelakeya 3+ goals
11%
Awassa Kenema 1+ goals
66%
Awassa Kenema 2+ goals
29%
Awassa Kenema 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mekelakeya (draw refunded)
52%
Awassa Kenema (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mekelakeya at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 81 matches

Awassa Kenema away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.22 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mekelakeya attack 1.04 + Awassa Kenema defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Awassa Kenema attack 1.14 + Mekelakeya defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mekelakeya scores more
37%
level
29%
Awassa Kenema scores more
34%

Mekelakeya at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mekelakeya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mekelakeya vs Awassa Kenema

Mekelakeya and Awassa Kenema drew 0-0 in Premier League on April 19, 2026.